The End of Average

Todd Rose’s talk traces the surprising history of how “average” became the standard by which everything from education to workplace design is organized, and why this causes profound problems. He begins with the story of the U.S. Air Force in the 1950s discovering that not a single pilot fit the “average” dimensions of their cockpit—built from the average of 4,000 measurements. The solution wasn’t to find more average pilots but to redesign cockpits to be adjustable, embracing individuality rather than standardization. Rose argues we need to make the same shift across society.

The concept of average emerged in the nineteenth century as a tool for astronomers correcting measurement errors, then was misapplied to human beings by Adolphe Quetelet, who introduced the idea of “the average man” as an ideal to aspire to. This thinking infected institutions from schools to workplaces, creating systems that optimize for a fictional average person while serving actual individuals poorly. Rose shows how standardized testing, grade levels, and one-size-fits-all curricula fail to account for the jaggedness of human ability—the fact that no one is average across all dimensions.

For educators, managers, and anyone involved in designing systems for humans, Rose’s talk offers a paradigm shift. Instead of asking “how does this person compare to average?” we should ask “what are this person’s unique strengths and pathways to success?” Rose’s principles of individuality—jaggedness, context, and pathways—provide a framework for building institutions that honor human variability rather than suppress it. In an age of AI and personalization technology, his vision of moving beyond average to embrace individuality feels both possible and urgent.